Availability Heuristic
We judge likelihood by how easily examples come to mind.
Explanation
We judge how likely something is to happen based on how easily we can think of examples, but this leads to systematic errors. Recent, dramatic, or emotional events are easier to remember, so we overestimate their probability. Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman identified this mental shortcut and showed how news coverage and vivid stories distort our risk perception.
Real-World Example
After seeing news about shark attacks, beach seems dangerous. Reality: Coconuts kill more people than sharks. Friend gets food poisoning at restaurant, you avoid it forever. But you've eaten there 50 times safely. One publicized kidnapping makes parents paranoid, though crime is at historic lows.
How to Apply
When estimating risk, look up actual statistics—don't trust your gut. Recent event? Discount its probability. Vivid story? Find base rates. Making decisions? Write down examples before they fade. Remember: news covers unusual events. If it's in the news, it's probably rare.