Confirmation Bias
We seek information that confirms our existing beliefs.
Explanation
Once we form an opinion about something, our brains automatically look for evidence that supports it and ignore evidence that contradicts it. This isn't because we're stupid—it's a mental shortcut that helped our ancestors survive. But it can lead us to make poor decisions because we're not seeing the full picture.
Real-World Example
Think coffee is healthy? You'll notice every study saying so, ignore ones saying it's not. Hired someone? You'll notice everything they do right, overlook mistakes. Think product will succeed? You'll focus on positive user feedback, explain away negative.
How to Apply
Actively seek disconfirming evidence. Steelman (not strawman) opposing views. Find the smartest person who disagrees with you. Pre-mortem: imagine failure, work backwards. Assign devil's advocate in meetings. Write down predictions—can't edit memories. Follow people you disagree with.